Pitfalls of Thinking: Confirmation Bias (1/2)
July 24th, 2010 | 
Author: 
Confirmation bias is a tendency to Search for, interpret or remember information in a way that confirms preconceptions or working hypotheses. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling Information from memory. Some psychologists use “confirmation bias” for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation.
I explore the use of confirmation bias in three areas:
1. Alternative health practices
2. Intelligent design creationism
3. HIV/AIDS denialism
Duration : 0:8:38
Posted in Search Information | 
Tags: Ad, alternative, bias, Confirmation, creationism, critical, design, health, hoc, hypothesis, intelligent, null, rationalization, science, thinking
Actually
The fact …
Actually
The fact that wakefield was paid to do the study for one side doesn’t interest me that much – Doesn’t matter how or why you get results the results matters
The thing that proves that it is complete and utter BS is that he had a sample size of 12 and took blood illegally from children….
@Zoppellaccia not …
@Zoppellaccia not jazz. definitely not jazz; jazz sends me into a blind rage.
Excellent, thank …
Excellent, thank you for this information…
The fact you say ” …
The fact you say “when you look for this…you will find many examples of it” about examples of confirmation bias, is asking for a confirmation bias in the search of conformation bias…
Irony win
@C0nc0rdance Agree: …
@C0nc0rdance Agree: I’ve taught formal logic, and it disappoints students that it doesn’t really help with critical thinking. The two things that would help are Bayesian statistics (not “null hypothesis”) and some psychology (so that people understand and compensate for their own biases). The education system isn’t doing this, so it falls to Youtube contributors to fill the gap.
BTW, as the main author of the WIkipedia article, I’m pleased to see this video bringing some of the material to life.
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“I believe that …
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“I believe that in order to make real progress one must again ferret out some general principle of nature.” – Albert Einstein 1952
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The known universe
14,000,000,000 BCE
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Earth 5,000,000,000 BCE
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Homo sapiens 300,000 BCE
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Fire (applied) 200,000 BCE
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The underlying law of nature (discovered & applied)
2003 CE
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I’ve found that I …
I’ve found that I experience nausea whenever I see Kevin Trudeau’s face, or sometimes just his name, but it passes as soon as he disappears. Is this a reverse placebo effect?
Colloidal silver …
Colloidal silver users and the rest of the “alternative medicine” scene people base their arguments and opinions on a point that is post hoc ergo propter hoc, ie “I felt sick, took silver and then I felt better 2 weeks later, therefore the silver caused me to feel better” or some such nonsense, and think its valid
i still cant believe people pay chiropractors for anything, but then again some people pay for horoscopes so I guess its not that far-fetched
“If a man is …
“If a man is offered a fact that goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something that affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence” Bertrand Russell
I have to agree …
I have to agree with HR. Formal logic as taught in college is a bit more specialized. I took one course in statistics to substitute for a fifth semester of Calculus, and I learned so very much useful info about how to think.
We need a course called: Critical Thinking. There are all these tools that people need to get through this world, and I think it would be good to give them these skills by junior high, while they still have the natural ability to question.
well, I’ve taken a …
well, I’ve taken a course in logic, and while it was informative and helpful, I did not find the material nearly as useful as my statistics courses. The concepts of hypothesis testing with a null hypothesis are stressed in statistics courses. I’m not saying logic wouldn’t be a good course to take also. There are many courses that I think high school students should take. Statistics just happens to be one that I think would be most useful =).
Personally, given …
Personally, given how simple the average logical fallacy is, how easy it is to develop the skill for detecting it, and the utility of such a skill, wouldn’t it be better to have all high school students take a logic course?
i think everyone …
i think everyone going through high school should be required to take an elementary statistics course. Here they can learn this sort of hypothesis testing. It really opens your eyes.
The colloidal …
The colloidal silver example reminds me of being in car of a family of believers when I was a child- back in the days of carburetors and starting problems due to “flooding”. The car wouldn’t start so the mother had everyone bow their heads and close their eyes and pray that God would let the car start on the next try.
Of course after the long pause and the problem had taken care of itself the mom was able to start the car up – Oh the power of prayer!
great video
great video
This is great stuff …
This is great stuff, but there is too much additional information in the video, which makes it necessary to keep pausing in order to get all of it.
They mandate you …
They mandate you call it a higher-power, and might even force you into calling it a supernatural one at that. But it doesn’t matter, my mostly grain-based squares surrounding dairy product is still a cheese sandwich.
As long as you know of one of the secular alternatives, it shouldn’t be a problem. They might not like it, but that really shouldn’t be their decision. They might be able to mandate I get help, but I would think them advocating specific organizations would be pushing the rules abit
Well they don’t …
Well they don’t mandate you call it “god,” and unfortunately the courts do not have a good track record of defending atheists’ rights in America, so I have a tough time believing they will avoid mandating AA for religious reasons.
Actually, the judge probably doesn’t care what group you go to, as long as that group is reasonably well-known and legitimate. There aren’t a lot of alternatives to AA, but there are some, so maybe you could convince the judge to let you do one of those instead.
I don’t think it …
I don’t think it matters, demanding people put faith in a higher power violates the religious stance of a naturalist (even if the religious stance is none at all), *especially* if they mandate calling that higher power “god”.
Probably not, since …
Probably not, since AA claims to be secular. Apparently they get around the fact that they clearly demand people put faith in a higher power by claiming that this doesn’t literally have to be a deity, but could be any object (even, say, a rock), as long as the alcoholic can symbolically put his trust in it. This is absurd, because there is no reason to symbolically put trust in a rock unless that rock is a symbol of a deity, but they don’t seem to care.
I wonder if an …
I wonder if an atheist could object to alcoholics anonymous meetings on the basis of religious freedom….
Yeah, this bothers …
Yeah, this bothers me, too. I first started thinking about this problem when I watched the Penn and Teller’s Bullshit episode on it (watch?v=8tPNgHrIkgo). Obviously, take what they say with a grain of salt (or a mound, in the case of, e.g., climate change), but this episode pretty much checks out.
What is also problematic is that AA forces you to worship a deity, which clearly doesn’t respect the rights of atheists.
I guess in really …
I guess in really large studies. The placebo effect has been shown to depend heavily on the health care providers. A trial at a hospital with excellent bedside manner will have different results than a factory style hospital. Maybe this effect averages out if you uses 1000’s of doctors, but variable beside manner/patient care is like introducing another ‘drug’ into trials.
dude this is some …
dude this is some interesting psychological analysis. In english we were talking about other nations and i wrote an essay on the illusion of objectivity and knowledge which alters our thinking so prevalently anyone wants to read it just ask me its along the same lines of this video. Something akin to extreme chavanistic nationlism.
Often I see a video …
Often I see a video called “the pH diet” which claims to cure cancer. It’s nothing but an infomercial for folks dealing with cancer. It’s discusting.
So this COncOrdance video is a welcome response.